EURUSD Short-Term Outlook: Downside Retest of POI Before Bullish Continuation

This EURUSD outlook was prepared from a Smart Money Concept perspective for the trading week of November 27, 2023. The short-term view expected EURUSD to move lower toward a marked point of interest before the broader bullish structure continued.

The main idea was simple: price could retrace to collect liquidity and mitigate the point of interest, but the higher-timeframe trend still favored bullish continuation after the pullback.

The short-term move was expected to be bearish, but the broader market structure remained bullish while price respected the marked POI and higher-timeframe direction.

EURUSD Short-Term Market View

EURUSD was showing a short-term downside possibility toward the marked POI. This type of movement often happens when price needs to collect liquidity before continuing in the main trend direction.

In this setup, the downside movement was not treated as a full bearish reversal. Instead, it was viewed as a retracement phase inside a broader bullish market structure.

Traders needed to watch how price reacted around the POI. A clean reaction from the zone could support a bullish continuation toward the daily potential supply zone.

Why EURUSD Could Retest the POI

In Smart Money analysis, price often returns to a point of interest before continuing in the larger direction. This return can help collect liquidity, mitigate an untested area, and create a better reaction point for the next move.

In the chart, EURUSD showed two possible POI areas. Price could reach one of those zones, or move deeper toward the extreme POI before showing a bullish reaction.

This is why traders should not rush into the market while price is still moving toward the POI. The better approach is to wait for price to reach the zone and then confirm whether buyers are returning.

A POI is a reaction area, not an automatic entry. The setup becomes stronger only when price reaches the zone and confirms the expected direction.

Main Trend Remained Bullish

Although the short-term outlook suggested a temporary bearish retracement, the main EURUSD trend was still bullish. The chart showed that after retracing into the point of interest, price had potential to continue higher again.

This is an important distinction. A short-term downside move can exist inside a bullish market. Traders who understand structure can separate a correction from a full trend reversal.

In this EURUSD outlook, the retracement was viewed as part of the bullish continuation plan, not as a reason to abandon the broader upside bias.

Liquidity Collection View

Liquidity was a key part of this analysis. Price often moves toward areas where orders are resting, especially around previous lows, internal structure, or unmitigated zones.

A move into the POI could help EURUSD collect short-term sell-side liquidity before buyers step back into the market. If price respected the zone and created bullish confirmation, the next move could target higher liquidity and the daily potential supply area.

Traders who want to understand this deeper logic can read our guide on institutional order flow.

Preferred EURUSD Scenario

The preferred scenario was for EURUSD to continue lower in the short term and retest the marked POI. After reaching that area, traders needed to watch for bullish confirmation.

A valid bullish continuation setup could include a strong rejection from the POI, a lower-timeframe change of character, bullish displacement, or a reclaim of a minor structure level.

• Short-term view: Downside retracement toward the marked POI.
• Main trend: Bullish while higher-timeframe structure remains intact.
• Key area: Marked POI zones on the chart.
• Confirmation needed: Bullish rejection, structure shift, or displacement.
• Upside objective: Daily potential supply zone after bullish continuation.

Risk View

The bullish continuation idea would become weaker if EURUSD broke below the marked POI with strong bearish pressure and failed to recover. In that case, the market could be showing a deeper structural shift instead of a normal retracement.

Traders should not enter only because price reaches the POI. Risk needs to be defined before any trade. A proper setup should include entry, stop loss, take profit, invalidation, and risk-to-reward planning.

The best trade is not always the first touch of the zone. A better trade often forms after price confirms that the POI is being respected.

Trade Planning View

The trading plan for this EURUSD outlook was to wait for the short-term downside move, observe the reaction around the POI, and then look for bullish confirmation.

If the POI held and price confirmed bullish structure, the setup could support a buy idea toward the daily potential supply zone. If price failed to hold the POI, traders needed to wait for new structure instead of forcing a bullish entry.

Traders who want structured trade ideas with planned entry, stop loss, take profit, and trade-management updates can learn more about our forex signals service.

Video Market Update

The video below was shared with the original analysis to support the market view and explain the Smart Money trading idea visually.

Final Thoughts

EURUSD was expected to move lower in the short term to retest a marked point of interest and collect liquidity. However, the broader structure remained bullish while price respected the POI and higher-timeframe direction.

The main trading idea was to wait for the retracement, observe the POI reaction, and look for bullish confirmation before planning a continuation setup.

As always, traders should avoid emotional entries. A clean Smart Money setup needs structure, liquidity, confirmation, and proper risk management before execution.