EURUSD Analysis: Bearish Pressure Targets Bullish POI Ahead of Next Move

EURUSD analysis today shows price trading near the 1.16250 area after breaking lower from the recent 4H range. The pair has cleared short-term structure and is now moving toward the marked bullish POI zones below. For the upcoming week, the main focus is not to chase the sell late. The better setup is to wait for price to reach the demand area, collect sell-side liquidity, and show confirmation before looking for a possible bullish reaction.

EURUSD Analysis Today: Key Market View

EURUSD has shifted lower after clearing upper liquidity near the 1.1800 – 1.1850 area. Price failed to continue higher after that sweep, then started delivering lower with bearish 4H candles. The latest break of structure near the 1.1650 – 1.1660 area confirms short-term seller control. However, price is now approaching a zone where buyers may begin to defend. The next important decision area is the first bullish POI around 1.1530 – 1.1580. If EURUSD reaches this zone and starts rejecting lower prices, the pair can form a bullish correction during the week.

EURUSD 4H Technical Analysis

On the 4H chart, EURUSD recently swept the upper liquidity area and failed to hold above it. After that move, price formed a bearish shift and started moving toward the lower demand areas. The break of structure around 1.1650 – 1.1660 shows that the immediate market delivery is bearish. This means traders should avoid buying from the middle of the move without confirmation. The first bullish POI sits around 1.1530 – 1.1580. This zone is important because it is close to the previous demand area created before the earlier bullish expansion. If the first POI fails to hold, the deeper POI around 1.1450 – 1.1500 becomes the next key reaction area.

Liquidity and POI View

The upper liquidity has already been cleared near the 1.1800 – 1.1850 area. After that sweep, price rejected higher levels and started drawing toward sell-side liquidity below. The current move is likely targeting liquidity below the recent internal lows. This creates a cleaner setup if price taps the POI, holds the demand zone, and then gives bullish confirmation. The preferred SMC view is simple: Sweep sell-side liquidity → tap the bullish POI → hold demand → form bullish confirmation → move toward upside liquidity.

EURUSD Bullish Scenario

The preferred EURUSD forecast is a bullish reaction from the POI, but only after price collects liquidity first. Buying too early is risky because the current 4H delivery still favors sellers. For the bullish setup, EURUSD needs to move lower into the 1.1530 – 1.1580 POI, sweep sell-side liquidity, and hold the zone. A lower-timeframe bullish structure shift will add stronger confirmation. If buyers defend this zone, the first upside reaction area is around 1.1650 – 1.1660. If bullish momentum continues, the next major liquidity target remains around 1.1780 – 1.1850.

Bearish Risk and Invalidation Level

The bearish risk remains active while EURUSD trades below the broken 4H structure area. If price fails to react from the first POI, sellers can continue pushing the pair toward the deeper demand area. A strong 4H close below 1.1530 will weaken the immediate bullish idea and make the deeper POI around 1.1450 – 1.1500 more important. The bullish outlook becomes invalid if EURUSD breaks and holds below the deeper POI with strong bearish momentum. In that case, traders should wait for a new structure before looking for long setups.

EURUSD Fundamental Overview Today

The main fundamental focus for EURUSD this week is the US dollar reaction to Federal Reserve communication. According to the Federal Reserve calendar, the FOMC minutes for the April 28–29 meeting are scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m. on May 20, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve This matters because FOMC minutes give traders more detail about the Fed’s policy discussion, inflation view, and rate outlook. If the minutes support a firm policy tone, the US dollar can stay strong and EURUSD can continue pressing lower into the marked POI zones. If the dollar loses momentum after the Fed release, buyers may defend the demand area and push EURUSD back toward the broken 4H structure around 1.1650 – 1.1660. From there, the next upside draw remains the liquidity area near 1.1780 – 1.1850. Because price is trading close to an important technical zone, traders should avoid reacting to the news alone. The better plan is to combine market structure, liquidity, POI reaction, and confirmation before taking a new position.

PreferForex EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD is bearish in the short term after breaking 4H structure, but the pair is approaching bullish POI zones where a reaction can form. The cleanest trading plan is to wait for price to reach the POI first. If the zone holds and confirmation appears, EURUSD can offer a better bullish opportunity for the upcoming week.

• Bias: Bearish pressure into bullish POI
• Current area: 1.16250
• Key POI: 1.1530 – 1.1580
• Deeper POI: 1.1450 – 1.1500
• First target: 1.1650 – 1.1660
• Main liquidity target: 1.1780 – 1.1850
• Invalidation: Clean 4H break and hold below 1.1450
• Fundamental risk: US dollar reaction to FOMC minutes and Fed policy expectations

For more updates like this, traders can follow our latest forex market analysis as prices develop around key liquidity zones. <