EURUSD Analysis: Bullish POI in Focus After USD Strength

EURUSD analysis today shows price trading near the 1.1710 area after pulling back from the recent 4H high. The pair is now testing internal sell-side liquidity and a nearby demand POI, making this zone important for the next directional move. The main technical focus is the 1.1690–1.1720 demand zone. If EURUSD sweeps liquidity and holds this POI, buyers can look for a bullish continuation toward 1.1755–1.1760 and then 1.1780–1.1800. However, today’s stronger US dollar keeps short-term pressure on the pair, so confirmation remains important.

EURUSD Analysis Today: Key Market View

The broader 4H structure still supports a potential bullish continuation, but today’s fundamentals have added pressure on the euro. The US dollar strengthened after hotter US inflation data, with Reuters reporting that April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year. That lifted Treasury yields and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. This means EURUSD is now trading at a mixed decision point. The technical chart is approaching a possible bullish reaction area, but the macro backdrop still supports short-term dollar strength. For that reason, buying directly into the pullback carries more risk. A liquidity sweep and lower-timeframe confirmation remain important before considering any bullish setup.

EURUSD 4H Technical Analysis

From the 4H chart, EURUSD remains in a corrective pullback after failing to continue above the recent high near the 1.1780–1.1800 area. Price is now approaching internal sell-side liquidity around the 1.1715–1.1720 region. Below that liquidity, we have a clean demand POI between roughly: 1.1690 – 1.1720 This is the main reaction zone for buyers. The setup is simple: price has not fully invalidated the bullish structure yet, but it is now testing the area where buyers must respond. A liquidity sweep into the POI, followed by a strong rejection, can confirm that the pullback is only a correction before another bullish leg.

Liquidity and POI View

EURUSD is currently trading around the sell-side liquidity zone. This makes the market sensitive because many short-term traders will place stops below the recent internal lows. A sweep below this liquidity can complete the inducement phase. If the price then holds inside the grey POI and shows a bullish lower-timeframe confirmation, the market can start drawing back toward upside liquidity. The first upside reaction area is near 1.1755–1.1760. The main buy-side liquidity target remains around 1.1780–1.1800.

EURUSD Bullish Scenario

The preferred EURUSD forecast remains bullish from the POI, but confirmation is important because today’s fundamentals favor the dollar. For the bullish setup, EURUSD needs to: Sweep sell-side liquidity → tap the demand POI → hold above 1.1690 → form bullish confirmation → move toward 1.1755 and 1.1800. A clean bullish reaction from the POI can show that sellers used the inflation-driven dollar strength to push prices into liquidity, while larger buyers used the discount area for new long positions.

Bearish Risk and Invalidation Level

The bullish idea becomes weak if EURUSD breaks below the demand POI with strong bearish candles and fails to reclaim the zone. A clean 4H close below 1.1690 can open the door for a deeper correction. In that case, the market is no longer respecting the current demand zone, and buyers should wait for a new structure before considering long positions.

EURUSD Fundamental Overview Today

The main pressure on EURUSD is coming from the US side. The dollar is holding near a one-week high after the strong CPI release increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep policy tight. Reuters reported that markets were pricing a stronger chance that the Fed avoids rate cuts this year, with traders also seeing a 35% chance of a 25 bps Fed hike by December. This is important for EURUSD because higher US yields usually support the dollar. When US inflation stays firm, the Fed has less room to cut rates. That creates short-term bearish pressure on EURUSD, even when the technical structure still shows a possible demand reaction area. The next key macro event is the US PPI release, which the market is watching after the strong CPI print. A stronger PPI number can add more dollar strength and push EURUSD deeper into the POI. A softer PPI number can reduce dollar pressure and help buyers defend the current demand zone. On the euro side, the market is also watching ECB communication. According to FXStreet, ECB’s Nagel said rate hikes are becoming increasingly likely, which gives the euro some support. Still, for today’s session, the dollar remains the stronger driver because inflation, Treasury yields, and Fed pricing are leading the market.

PreferForex EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD is trading at a key 4H decision zone. The technical chart shows price moving into internal sell-side liquidity and a nearby demand POI, which supports a possible bullish reaction. However, today’s strong US inflation data has strengthened the dollar and increased short-term downside pressure. As long as EURUSD holds the 1.1690–1.1720 POI, the bullish continuation idea remains valid. A liquidity sweep followed by confirmation can support a move toward 1.1755–1.1760, then the main upside liquidity around 1.1780–1.1800.

• Bias: Bullish from POI, but confirmation required
• Current area: 1.1710
• Key POI: 1.1690 – 1.1720
• First target: 1.1755 – 1.1760
• Main liquidity target: 1.1780 – 1.1800
• Invalidation: Clean 4H break below 1.1690
• Fundamental risk: Strong USD after hotter US CPI; US PPI remains the next key catalyst

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