Interest rates are the price of money. It is a percentage that translates into an amount of money by which you pay for the use of money. This percentage is set by the Superintendence of Banks and Financial Institutions and the transgression of this limit is punishable by law.
In the field of economics and finance, the concept of interest refers to the cost of having a credit or the profitability of savings. It is a term that, therefore, can describe the profit, utility, value, or gain of a particular thing or activity.
If it is a deposit, the interest rate expresses the payment received by the person or company who deposits the money by putting that amount available to the other. If it is a loan, the interest rate is the amount the debtor must pay to who pays for the use of that money.
Interest Rate Central Bank & Currency
The central banks make transactions with other credit institutions through the interest rate. The central bank has the ability to affect the interest rates of commercial banks at the rate of inflation in the country and the rate of the national currency.
A decrease in interest rates increased business activity and increased inflation. An increase in interest rates leads to a decline in business activity, lower inflation, and appreciation of the national currency.
As with any product, the law of supply and demand is fulfilled while easier to get money (more choice, greater liquidity); the interest rate will be lower. Conversely, if there is not enough money to lend, the rate will be higher.
How do interest rates affect the economy?
Low-interest rates help the growth of the economy, as they facilitate consumption and therefore demand for products. Generally think that most products are consumed, more economic growth. The downside is that this consumption has inflationary trends.
The interest rate could be high or low depending on many factors. High-interest rates encourage savings and curb inflation since consumption decreases with increasing the cost of debt. But to reduce consumption economic growth also slows.
Rising Interest Rates effects the economy like it Increases the cost of borrowing, Increases mortgage interest payments, Higher interest rates increasing the value of Currency.
Low-interest Rates help people to buy a lot of securities that instill cash in the banking system. Carry traders exchange currency by selling the lower currency with high-interest rates that make use of the interest rate differentials.
Another interest rate that is used as a macroeconomic indicator is the Inter-bank Equilibrium Interest Rate which is being applied in daily needs for reference Base Financing Rate.
Interest Rate and Forex Correlation
The central bank interest rate has a substantial impact n currency pairs and consequently on Forex trading also. The level of these interest rates and thereafter, the changes that will be made on their level will have a significant impact on the value of the currency and on flows of incoming and outgoing capital of a country.
In the view of interest rate and currency correlation, we see that increasing interest rates in most cases stimulate the flow of investment from one currency to another currency. Because currencies represent the economy of a country, the interest rate differentials between countries affect each other currencies,
The central bank monetary committee announce the interest rate of its currency. According to the nation’s economic aspect, the central banks increase rates in order to curb inflation and cut rates to encourage people in lending that can inject money into the economy. There are eight leading central banks in the world. Like the Federal Reserve of the US conduct the adjustment of its interest rate in order to ensure price stability.
All central banks have their own schedule for flashing their interest rate. On a scheduled date if a central bank raises interest rates, the yield available for investments in that currency is improved. The improvement effects on investment generally attract investors to invest more in this currency. Thus, it will result in increased demand for this currency, which will lead to an end more or less rapidly, increasing the value of the currency.
The interest rate in the country significantly affects international capital flows. An increase in interest rates is usually associated with an increased influx of foreign capital, which carries significant pressures to strengthen the domestic currency. When interest rates fall, the process opposite.
Forward Interest Rate
The forward exchange rate is the rate that is used in pre-arranged transactions with the terms of the given date. Thus, at present conclude a contract that provides for the future exchange of two currencies at predetermined quantity and price. Forward interest rate is most important to the fixed income investor. Such as who invests in 1 year 2 year or 6-month treasury bills.
Parity of Interest Rates
The relationship between interest rates and exchange rates are formalized in a more known as “parity of interest rates” Here apply a simple method that is called Interest Rate Parity (IRP) Theory. This theory states that if two currencies have different interest rates, then this difference will be reflected in the forward exchange rate or future exchange rate. The Parity of interest rate plays an important role in foreign exchange markets(Forex) it has close connection with interest rates, spot exchange rates, and foreign exchange rates. Interest Rate Parity also classified in 2 types:
– Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIRP)
– Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
How to Trading in Forex – Interest Rate?
To trade in forex need two different currencies for a pair. The interest rate is associated with each currency and every currency has an interest rate that is associated with it. So when a forex trader going to trade in pairs they also directly or indirectly involve their two different interest rates.
The eight global central bank’s interest rate influences the foreign-exchange market by changing the interest rate on a different schedule in a year. The rate change drives the market largely which creates volatility in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is required to obtain information on the rate and another major announcement by those leading banks. Below is the list of 8 major central banks.
1. U.S. Federal Reserve System (The Fed)
2. European Central Bank (ECB)
3. Bank of England (BoE)
4. Bank of Japan (BoJ)
5. Swiss National Bank (SNB)
6. Bank of Canada (BoC)
7. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
8. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
First Needs to analyze macro views of a currency to predict before forecasting, for your analysis following economic data is required to consider-
1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
2. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
3. Unemployment figures
4. Housing Market
5. Recent Major announcement by Bank
The rate deviation is supposed to be higher than the related currency gets the power to move the market immediately full of charge. In this case, the need to underrated direction go as well to reach a higher profit level. The most important that need to react accordingly reversal of the trend to manage perfectly your profit.
Rollover Interest Rates in Forex
In forex, the trader earns or pays an overnight stay fee that is initiated from rollover interest rates. Here traders could be earned or paid depending on the interest rate. If the interest rate of buying currency is higher than the selling currency then traders earn rollover money. Traders need to pay rollover if buying currency’s interest rate is lower than the selling currency. For settlement, trade is considered 5. PM of Eastern Standard Time. There are some methods to calculate the rollover hope I may write on this later.
Interest Rate Hike example here https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/european-central-bank-confirms-july-rate-hike-plans-raises-inflation-projections.html
In the fundamental view, there are few great economic indicators that impact the forex market most and Currency Rate is one of them. I tried to draw an overall picture of interest rate effects on forex shortly its vast topics that can be sectioned more. Put your opinion to us. Thanks for reading.